For the first half of 2022, a total of 379 bulk carriers were sold, which is 82 vessels less that have changed hands compared to the first half of 2021. Ultramax and Capesize sectors saw their S&P activity slow down as their sales dropped by 51% and 41% respectively. It is worth mentioning that during the first six months of 2022 S&P activity increased only in the Handysize sector by 13% compared to the same period of last year. Although we witness an 18% decline in S&P activity in the dry bulk market compared to the first half of 2021, this is not discouraging by any means, as the activity remains rather strong, around 110%, 89.5% & 26% higher compared to 2020, 2019 & 2018 respectively.
In the wet market a total of 279 vessels were sold within the first six months of 2022. This shows a slight increase of around 17% in comparison with 2021’s first semester but this performance is higher by around 81%, 63% & 39% in comparison with the first six months of 2020, 2019 & 2018 accordingly. Most notably, buyers interest is significantly focused across the product segment as the sales in the MR1/MR2 sector increased by 51% compared to the same months of 2021. Furthermore, in the Panamax/ LR1 sector, the sales have increased by around 61%, and there is also a significant rise in the number of transactions in small and chemical tankers, which have increased by around 66% compared to the same period of 2021. On the other hand, 2022 wasn’t favourable enough until now for the Aframax/LR2 sector. Their number of transactions is down by around 36% in comparison to June 2021. Finally, the number of VLCC’s which found new owners is almost the same for both first halves of 2021 & 2022.
Trying to analyse the above data, it’s obvious that the tanker market is in the S&P spotlight. After 2 years of lockdowns with the oil & product demands at very low levels, the conditions have been reversed. The global oil and oil products demand is recovering fast and has surpassed the global supply. Market analysts predict that global oil markets will likely remain tight and supportive of higher prices well into 2023, as demand continues to recover from COVID-19 lows despite growing concerns over a global recession. It is expected to see 2 to 3 million b/d of global oil demand growth in 2023 (about 1 million b/d above the average of 2019, pre-pandemic level, but with more price volatility over the risks of slower economic growth and high energy prices) despite concerns over “runaway prices”, with oil supplies struggling to keep up with the increased demand. Although sanctions are in place on Russian oil, analysts predict that more Russian crude and oil products will be exported to Asia next year as Europe shuns Moscow oil and Asian refiners find ways to obtain more discounted Russian oil. Approximately half of Russia’s oil exports are still bound for Europe and the other half is headed for Asian markets, a statistic that will shift at the end of the year with EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
China’s economy has been restrained by lockdowns, forcing the crude steel consumption into a decrease of 15% comparing to 2021. This was a factor which put some pressure on the dry market, but the prospective seems positive for the rest of the summer. Bauxite imports in China have remained above 10 million mt for five consecutive months with May’s imports hitting a monthly record high of 11.97 million mt. Refineries in China are forecasting that the demand will keep rising in the following months and so will the bauxite imports. This fact along with the record high alumina output in China and with the boosted exports of alumina to Russia are important elements that show that dry market will find additional support in China compensating the fall of steel demand.
Numbers never lie and Baltic indices BDTI and BCTI are here to confirm wet market’s momentum. BDTI is at 1,219 points having increased by 10% since the begging of June while BCTI is at 1,699 points, 21% higher that the 1rst of June. Both indices have only 4 negative closings during June. On the dry side of the indices BCI is at 2,396 points, almost 20% lower than last week and 18% lower than 1rst of June. BPI , BSI and BHSI have also move southern both in a weekly and monthly basis and are now at 2,695, 2,449 and 1,334 points respectively.
Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc
